الجمعة، 29 أكتوبر 2010

Is oil in a wave of momentum bearish

The price of oil began in the downward trend took the form of a wave of momentum since the recent summit IM at 81.95 and we started a study of price Moggio and short-term depending on the nature and sequence band during the trading that took place this year. We have shown in the chart below wave front LD country and formed the first wave of the wave driving the highest-ranking systems on the short-term time.





Depending on the numbering shown in the picture above, we believe that the price is a wave stunted out of five waves and this is the wave of a fourth wave correction within the scope of the third wave falling overall. From here we must look to the objectives of the fourth wave, according to the rules of the theory of Elliott is an academic.

The goal of the fourth wave:

Correct the fourth wave at least 23% of the third wave that preceded it (in some cases, only 14% correct but we are talking about the normal position), but in many cases, the patch up to the level of 38.2% and in very rare cases correct the price and 61.8% in fewer cases also corrected for 76% of the third wave.

We believe that we are facing a rare condition where the price has corrected 76.4% from the third wave and this means that the price may reach levels around 75.70 before continuing the downward trend in the original.

Momentum indicators are showing negative impacts and assure us a clear overall downward trend is expected but should be pointed out that this scenario fails in the event happened over the daily closing level of $ 78.50 per barrel.

It should be noted that the composition of the target price the psychological barrier of $ 60.00 per barrel
.